The 3 Most Exciting Startups You Haven’t Heard of

Every day we are bombarded by ever greater promises of a startup revolutionizing this and disrupting that. You are not alone to wonder how on earth you can navigate through the hype and where the value really is. In the world world of Uber, SpaceX, and Libra, for example, we might forget about the startups that are not working on something sexy or their project is not related directly to our daily lives.

I try to do my part and present to you three very interesting startups.  These teams are all working on projects that have the potential to truly change the world away from direct contact with end consumers.

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LTSE, The Long-Term Stock Exchange

Long-Term Stock Exchange was founded by Eric Ries, the author of Lean Startup. LTSE is a stock exchange just like Nasdaq for example but unlike the traditional stock exchanges, LTSE encourages long-term investments over the short-term.  How stocks are traded today leads to financial incentives that encourage companies to forget about what will happen in a couple of years as the bonuses and stock prices are tight to the results of the next quarter.

One of the things that I was not able to figure out before learning about Lean Startup and LTSE is that how can it be possible that time after time, in every industry,  even the wealthiest companies are being disrupted by tiny startups. I believe the answer is misaligned incentives in the large established companies and the reason for the misalignment is the short-term thinking stemming from traditional stock trading. If LTSE can fix this problem the impact on the markets will be staggering and it could even spark worldwide economic growth.

LTSE homepage.

TED talk on LTSE.

Avalon Energia

Once seen as the super dangerous monster, nuclear power is again a concrete option for sustainable energy globally.

The mission of Avalon Energia is to raise public support for international nuclear waste repositories in Finland, amend Finnish nuclear energy legislation, identify the repository municipalities and establish relationships with international partners in the nuclear energy sector. After political and public opinion obstacles in Finland are removed, Avalon Energia could take charge of the 1-trillion-euro business of disposing of international High-Level Waste in a network of deep geological repositories in Finland with existing safe methods and technologies (see Olkiluoto Repository). Lastly, Finland and its international partners could reprocess the spent nuclear fuel (which has 97% of its energy content left) to power the entire planet without emissions for the next century.

Finland is already the global leader in the nuclear waste sector and arguably the only country in the world where international nuclear waste repositories are possible due to politics, public opinion, and stable geology. Finland can solve the global High-Level Waste disposal problem. In doing so, the world gets an opportunity to build more carbon-free nuclear power, win over climate change.

Quite a promise, right? The work Avalon has ahead is gigantic and far away from traditional businesses. The problem and the solution Avalon offers are both very unique. Robert Nemlander and his team have exciting times and ahead and they deserve all the attention and support they can get.

Avalon Energy

Introduction video.

Solar Foods

What if I tell you there is a way to make food out of thin air? Well, that’s what Solar Foods is doing! Their fermentation process uses only CO2, electricity, and water to produce high-protein food product. What makes the process even more exciting is that it does not require any arable land and it is not dependent on weather, irrigation or soil. All these factors make Solar Foods an excellent choice for areas in the world struggling for example of droughts. Moreover, the applications of the process are not limited only to this planet. Solar Foods is already working together with ESA to discover options of using Solar Foods’ solution in space flights.

Solar Foods is not alone in this space, but their approach of decentralized production and aiming specifically for human food outputs makes it one of the three most interesting startups out there today.

Solar Foods homepage.

Solar Food explained in 8 minutes.

 

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Automation Is the Last Thing a Startup Needs.

Scaling up production of a new company that involves untested parts is a challenging and risky task. Unlike in the digital world, when working with physical processes production requires more upfront investments. When a company has to commit to significant investments in the early stages with limited experience and knowledge, there is an increased risk of those investments going wrong. How a company can mitigate this risk was discussed in my earlier blog post that you can find here. In the previous text, I suggested what you should do. In this one, I suggest what you should not do: Automation.

Early automation of a production process has many downsides. When production is carried out by human operators instead of machines, they can use all their senses to learn and improve the process. While running the process, the operators do not only learn about the process and get ideas for improvements; they also do quality control. Learning from where the failures are originating from first hand gives the company better position comparing to fully automated production line where the raw materials go in one end and the ready and faulty products out from the other. First-hand knowledge from the production line is essential for process development. In the early stages when the understanding of the production process is low, long hours of human labor are needed to learn what could be automated in the first place. Automating too early in the learning curve will hinder the learning for the presented reasons. Additionally, machines and other types of automation hardware are costly, acquiring them involves long lead-times, machines are not readily adaptable, and they have a high risk of becoming obsolete when build-measure-learn loops are completed.

Instead of automation a cheap and fast way to improve the output of production and to reduce the workload of human operators are Karakuri- methods. Karakuri is Japanese and literal translation of the word to English is “mechanism.” Small makeshift automation solutions in a production line are examples of Karakuri. Let’s say an operator needs to move a heavy machine to her workstation frequently, but it must be returned after using because it would be blocking the operator from executing the next process step. The machine moves on wheels a small distance back and forth, but the high frequency of moving makes it exhausting for the operator. Instead of building larger workstation (expensive!) or automating the movement of the machine by a motor (very expensive!) wire can be attached to the machine on one end and a bucket full of sand to the other. Also, a rail is placed on the floor for the wheels to move on. Now, the operator can pull the machine to her and lock it in place while in use. After using the weight of the heavy sand, the bucket will pull the machine pack automatically (and cheaply!). A more straightforward example of Karakuri- solutions are shelves that are tilted to a small angle making the products on the shelf to fall to the edge closer to the operator. In general, shelf-made Karakuri solutions are cheaper, easy to maintain and easy to improve compared to purchased automation solutions.

One of the only places where automation can be recommended early on is data collection. Data collection and analyzing tools such as data loggers and analyzing software are relatively cheap, but they are also a lot more reliable than human operators. Data is in the core of the learning process, unlike improving the speed or quality of the production where automation could be considered as well.

ilkka-kastehelmikone

Do Not Outsource! But If You Do, Remember These 3 Things

Ok, maybe the title is a bit provocative – this applies first and foremost to startup companies. This text is part two of Introduction to Lean Production Scale-Up Model. You can find the first part here.

What happens throughout the production scaling of a startup is a lot of learning in two equally essential sectors: From the market and customers’ needs (the market build-measure-learn loop), but also about the production process (the production build-measure-learn loop).

double loop

In the early stages of production scale-up, all work must focus on optimizing the learning process that can be best achieved when the production is done in-house. When using a subcontractor in the early stages of development, the company will also find it difficult to continue to the later stages of scale-up because the subcontracting partners hold the tacit knowledge and thus the negotiation power in the developing partnership.

It is tempting to outsource production or parts of it to speed up the development and reduce the need for capital investment. Subcontracting can indeed offer very tangible and attractive benefits: Facilities and supply chains are ready, and the need for upfront investments is limited to name a few, but these benefits are not related to the primary goal that is the efficient learning. If a subcontractor does the production at an early stage, the learning will happen at the subcontractor, not internally at the company.

Using a subcontractor also fights against some of the Lean principles. A subcontractor adds additional layers of management and material handling that do not add value to the customer. Additional material handling is especially the case if the subcontractor is used to do only some parts of the production. In such an arrangement, materials are loaded and unloaded between a different location that does not serve as a value-adding function.

An additional difficulty of using subcontractors in the early stage is the lack of incentives for the subcontractor to do continuous development of the production process and the suboptimal operational infrastructure of the subcontractor. Example of misaligned interests and operational infrastructure between the company and the subcontractor could be a situation where the company learns the clients want to pick up products evening time, but the subcontractor has nobody working after office hours. When you are the only client the subcontractor has requested this change in working hours you know completing this change will cost you a lot. In general, the subcontractor has minimal incentives to modify its operations to match the needs of one small client the best possible way.

One clear benefit a subcontractor can have is access to better prices and hard-to-acquire parts and machines. If this is the case, a subcontractor could be used to produce subassemblies involving these parts and machines. Yes, this would be a step for more complex and expensive, most likely also slower, production, but if this way is seen as the fastest way to learn, then it is the correct way.

If in-house production is not an option.

There are certain environments where in-house production is not a feasible option. Examples of these are regulated industries where you might have very long and expensive processes to get a certified production facility working from scratch.

Have your own people at the subcontractor.

If using a subcontractor is a must, the best possible option would be having the company’s own employees to run the production at the subcontractor’s facility. The need of hiring own employees can be restricted to the core functions of the production and to the parts that are related to the innovation, but the broader the scope of collected knowledge from the day-to-day work, the better. Warehouse management, packing, maintenance, and logistics are examples of the areas that could be left for the subcontractor to handle.

Use multiple subcontractors.

Hiring more than one subcontracting company is a method to position the hiring company better in long term negotiations. When the subcontractor is not the only one with the needed skills and machinery in place, the hiring company has a good position when difficulties eventually arise. In case of poor performance of subcontractor or if the subcontractor wants to charge you more of their work, having an alternative or two gives the hiring company good negotiation power. Having a second subcontractor means some increase in cost related to managing the co-operating, but the costs should not double.

Form a partnership with the subcontractor.

 

As explained earlier, one of the risks in working with subcontractors is the level of commitment for long-term co-operation. Financial investments for the joint project of production development by both parties can lower the risk. The subcontractor could invest in the hiring company and thus creating a clear incentive for developing the production together in the long-term. Other option could be establishing a common production company owned collectively by the innovation owner and the subcontractor. In the new company, the day-to-day management would be handled by the production professionals from the subcontractor, and the innovation owner would concentrate on research and development, marketing and other aspects of the business. The co-ownership would give both parties security as the success of the owners of the newly created company are intertwined.

Introducing Lean Production Scale-Up

Lean Production Scale-Up is a four-step model designed for companies operating in untested markets with untested technology. The purpose of the model is the reduce the high capital risk that is associated especially with companies using new technology and innovations. The model enables the company to make its technology investments as soon as possible time-wise, but as late as possible in the learning curve.

I developed the model based on my experiences in production development in various startup companies both in the medical and food industries.

While the Lean Startup movement serves many types of startups, there is one aspect that has not been included in the broader public discussion. Lean Startup concentrates on finding the market fit for the untested product or service as efficiently as possible but assumes that the same level of uncertainty does not exist in the internal operations of the company. Companies like Spotify, Dropbox, and Facebook, had critical and untested assumptions regarding their business models when they started, but they did not need to doubt if the product was doable technically once market fit was confirmed.

The situation is critically different for companies that are involved in a business where the product or the production process is involving an innovation. Industries like 3D printing and food grown in bioreactors are operating in untested markets, but they are also working with unproven technology.

Build- Measure- Learn Double Loop.

Lean Startup focuses on optimizing learning by using the Build-Measure-Learn loop. For companies also having internal unknowns, a second loop is needed that is for the production process.

An Information Technology or service company must look into improving their working process for improvement as well, but in most cases, a software company is using existing coding languages, software, and hardware. When working with building new physical products with new machines and machine setups, new raw materials and so on the need for internal learning and improving the working process in the company is multiplied. Together, the two Build-Measure-Learn Loops form the Build-Measure-Learn Double Loop.

double loop

Figure 1: Build-Measure-Learn Double Loop

Lean Production Scale-Up Model

By using this model, a company with new innovation can navigate its way from an idea to full-scale production. Alternatively, in the case that innovation or the business model using it does not add value to customers or is not technically feasible, the company can identify this as soon as possible.

The Lean Production Scale-Up model consists of four steps. The model is divided into these exact four questions to maximize the efficiency of the scale-up process. Each step asks the question that the company must answer by using the Build-Measure-Learn Double Loop. The questions are answered one-by-one in the specific order.

The primary goal of the early production when working with innovation is not to generate profit for the company, and it is not to have a positive gross margin, but to reach the learning goals of each step and taking those steps as fast as possible. If you do something else than what is necessary at that step at hand, you increase your expenditure, risks, and what is worst you slow down learning and business assumption validation.

  • Step 1: Is there a demand? The question is quite similar to step 2, but asking first is there any demand at all, key assumptions can be invalidated without the need of financial commitments to production space and machinery that must be in place in step 2.
  • Step 2: Is the demand sustainable and scalable? After confirming that there is some interest comes the time to validate that the demand is not limited to too small customer segments and that the customers will turn into returning customers and advocates. Some investments are now needed, but only the ones that are necessary to collect the learnings are taken. All development ideas related to improving production efficiency are postponed.
  • Step 3: Is positive gross margin achievable? Once demand and market fit are clear, its time to confirm not only that the product can be produced on an industrial scale, but also that it can be done with a positive gross margin. At this stage when still operating with suboptimal machinery (the quick & dirty solution you have put in place so far) actually having positive gross margin is difficult, but you can collect evidence that positive gross margin can be reached. For example, changing too small warehouse to a larger one and investing in an automated packing line will improve your operational costs significantly.
  • Step 4: Continuous development. The company acquires the full-scale profit-generating production line. Learning is still essential for the young company, but the learning curve starts to slow down, and development starts to resemble established company: The development in the production process is now numerous small steps, while in the previous steps it was mostly fewer, but substantial steps. At this stage, the Lean Production Scale-Up has run its course and hands the control over to Lean Management that is specialized in continuous development.

By following the four-step model, a company with new physical innovation can navigate its way from an idea to full-scale production. Alternatively, in the case that innovation or the business model using it does not add value to customers or is not technically feasible, the company can identify this as soon as possible.

A major part of the financial risk involved in the production scale-up is associated with the relatively large upfront investments. Setting up a workshop, let alone a laboratory requires a set of tools and machines. Acquiring suitable working space and required tools is intensive investment wise. Making these investments as soon as possible time-wise, but as late as possible in the learning curve is the goal of Lean Production Scale-Up.

Avoid outsourcing

What happens throughout the Lean Production Scale-Up model is a lot of learning in two equally important sectors: From the market and customers’ needs (the market build-measure-learn loop), but also about the production process (the production build-measure-learn loop). It is tempting to outsource production or parts of it to speed up the development and reduce the need for capital investment. Subcontracting can indeed offer very tangible and tempting benefits: Facilities and supply chains are ready, no need for upfront investments or hiring production operators to name a few but looking for these benefits are not the purpose of the early stage production. If production is done by a subcontractor at an early stage, the learning will happen at the subcontractor, not internally at the company. All work must focus on optimizing the learning process that can be best achieved when the production is done in-house. When using a subcontractor in the early stages of development, the company will also find it difficult to continue to the later stages of scale-up because the subcontracting partners hold the tacit knowledge and thus the negotiation power in the developing partnership.

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Here you got a glance at what my Lean Production Scale-Up- book project is about! The idea is still fresh is only now starting to take shape. So far I have some 30 pages about the topic going more in detail how the four steps would look like in practice and what are the dos and don’ts for the starting company that is operating in the untested market with untested technology.

Edit: Second part of introducing the model can be found here: Do Not Outsource! But If You Do, Remember These 3 Things

Would you like to read more on the topic? Any feedback on this blog post? Please get in touch by email or twitter!

Your friend, Ilkka Taponen

How We Changed the Legal Environment of Our Startups

The 20th of September 2017 big news came out: Evira, the Finnish FDA, changed its interpretation of certain EU-level regulations to allow the sale of insect products for human food and for animal feed in Finland. Before the change, all insect products sold for human consumption were banned and there were serious restrictions on insect feed for farmed animals. This change means the end of the years-long waiting period and the Finnish Insect for Food and Feed (IFF) companies have been able to start selling full speed.

The legal environment is one the risks that every company must consider carefully in their business plan regardless the industry they are operating in. In general, a hostile legal environment is seen as a big minus and something that is difficult to change, especially in short term.

No matter how unlikely and how difficult it was considered to be, the Finnish IFF- startups were able to lobby the authorities to change their viewpoint and open the markets. Similar changes are expected all over the Western world, but Finland changed it’s interpretation now sooner than others.

How exactly the Finnish startups spurred the change and how can you do the same in your home country and your industry?

Positive Relationship with Media

The hype around rearing insects for food and feed started around 2011 when FAO started to promote insects as a sustainable choice over conventional animal protein sources. The media attention reached Finland as well and since has been featured multiple times on all major media platforms. Finnish start-ups started to emerge some years after 2011 and since they have featured the articles and news regularly as well.

The IFF- industry is quite unique in many ways and this is one of the major reasons why media has covered so much of it nationally, but all the startups have been not only accepting invites for public speaking and giving interviews, but also reaching out for reporters. What has been great to notice on many occasions I have been asked to cover for other players in the industry to cover for them for e.g public speaking if there has been a double booking. This tells of shared understanding that raising public’s understanding and awareness is very important, even if the publicity points goes to the neighbor company.  For emerging industries many times the competition is not the companies doing similar things than you, but the companies you coming to steal the market from. This essential idea is widely spread in the small Finnish industry and now we all share the fruits of co-operation.

Make Regulators Work for You

Some years ago I had a discussion with Entocube, one of the Finnish startups. I criticized their approach to bring to market end-user products, even though their main business the insect farming technology had at that point many open questions. Now looking back Entocube’s vision to raise awareness about their company and industry by their clever “kitchen decoration products” (insect food was banned) was very unselfish and brave, but also the right thing to do. By pushing the limits of the regulating bodies and sparking even more discussion with their products in media gave the initiative for Evira to start looking seriously on their approach to the topic.

sirkkapurkki

Above is a picture of the “Cricket Jar”- kitchen decoration jar. Not for consumption! A great way to raise awareness and push the limits. This product forced the regulatory body to react. 

We did not have common plan or organization

What was not done is equally important with what was done. Finnish companies have not formed a registered association, but what we have shared so far is a common goal and modern perception of markets. Also, it is worth noticing that there are no Finnish members in the global association of IFF-companies IPIFF.

To me, this tells that organic communication from different entities was at least in this case the key to build up political pressure that leads to this change. Could it be that when the communication is natural and organic instead of designed and always politically correct it is something that interest media and the big audience more?

Three learning points

Every country is their own case, but I see that there are three points to learn from this case.

  • Raise public’s awareness. This is the first step for people to start accepting the idea of something new and to introduce more wide pressure for the public sector to start thinking of the current policies.
  • Force the regulating bodies to react. Especially in a field that was never been though of carefully by the lawmakers by pushing the boundaries, you force them to draw the lines for the first time. What is most important here is that the decisions must be justified. If there is clear lack of regulation, the wheels will start to move within the public sector.
  • Co-operation of the industry. It is essential that the companies operating in the field do not fall into the trap of thinking that they are each other’s enemies. Even though they are working in the same field, the growth in nascent markets is gained from the growing market, not by winning market share from the competition. When the common goals are understood by the industry players they can work together and achieve bigger targets that they could ever be done alone.

Finnish IFF-industry in 2017:

Nothing is more important than AI

Most of us are familiar with the concept that it is better to fix the cause than the effect. This idea is at the core of the Lean Manufacturing concept, created by Taiichi Ohno and Toyota.  Lean Manufacturing was later developed into the Lean startup- movement inspired by Eric Ries that aims maximize the speed of learning.

Even though we’re aware of this principle, we very often end up doing the opposite. It is natural to just fix the effect, as it is faster and the results are easier to see. Yet in the long run, you lose time and money with this method, because, with the root cause unfixed, the same effect will occur.

The future of technology holds amazing sci-fi -like tools. Nanotechnology, bioengineering, genetics, robotics, space-travel and so on. But the only technology that can help us fight the root cause of poor productivity and resource wasting is the development of Artificial Intelligence, AI. All the listed technological advantages aim to increase the efficiency of human activities, but the difference is that AI is the only one that can help us understand which activities are worth doing in the first place, and how to do them in the most efficient way. For example, while robotics help us do things in high efficiency, maybe that activity was not needed at all in the first place. In other words, while AI can give us the GPS coordinates to our destination and map to follow, robotics can only make us move incredibly fast, and us humans decide on the direction in which we want to move. My example of robotics comes from physical production, but the same idea applies also to product design, marketing, HR and so on.

Our world is not lacking food, physical resources or talent. Yet we are wasting all of these in staggering amounts daily, especially human talent. We need improvement in the use of the world’s resources, and for this AI is the most important technology.

The significance of AI has been recognized widely, and all major technology companies are involved in developing ways to improve the technology and offer multiple ways to implement it into our lives. Even though the benefits of AI management tools are clear, strong incentives exist in the modern global market to fight against the “AI manager”.

AI management tools would steer companies toward long-term, sustainable growth, but the contemporary stock exchange and marketplace encourages to seek short-term profits. Since investors want to see short-term value increase in the companies they invest in, the management they name have incentives to sacrifice long-term plans over short-term ones. This is obviously nothing new, but every time AI takes a step forward, the decision to act against facts will have a higher opportunity cost. Eventually, this cost will be so high that it cannot be ignored, but the sooner we can bring AI into decision-making, the better. And since we are fighting issues like global warming and other ecological disasters, there really is no time to waste.

Fighting against better solutions sounds counter-intuitive, but the world is full of similar examples where existing structures prevent obvious improvements from taking over. Why do they still have separate taps for hot and cold water in the UK? Why do Phillips-head screws still exist when we have Torx screws? Why don’t all cars come with Run Flat tyres? The Run Flat tyres, the PAX system, is especially interesting. The PAX solution offers better safety and flexibility for the customer, the technology was shared with multiple tyre and car manufacturers, and market studies show that the demand is there, but still, we are not using it. The answer lies in co-adaptation and co-innovation risks. When there is some external entity in the supply chain that is not benefiting of the improvement, they will not be active in taking it into use, or, even worse, they might fight against the change. In this case, a co-adaptation risk occurred. Car service companies did not have high enough incentive to invest in PAX- machinery, and cars with these tyres could not find convenient service network. This theory and the PAX system example is presented in Ron Adner’s book The Wide Lens.

Technology is advancing faster day by day. AI management tools will be the most significant of all upcoming advances because they will make all other advancements faster. Improving the technology and creating applications for it is not enough, as there are obstacles to solve before AI is widely taken into use. Finding ways to smooth the path for AI to enter our world is the second most important task we face now, right after AI itself. And these two tasks will be the last ones us humans will have to do on our own.

There is nothing quite so useless as doing with great efficiency something that should not be done at all.” – Peter Drucker

Further reading:

Lean Startup:  http://theleanstartup.com/

The Wide Lens: http://thewidelensbook.com/

The PAX- system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelin_PAX_System

Deep Knowledge Ventures, the first company to appoint AI to its board of directors: http://www.deepknowledgeventures.com/

aurinko